Everyone has lost in the Bundesliga swap shop
We're halfway through the 2021/22 season and last summer's managerial merry-go-round hasn't really paid off for anyone in Germany.
Well, first and foremost, I hope everyone has enjoyed the festive period.
After a winter break of my own — apologies for that — I’m back ahead of the Bundesliga’s return on Friday. Or Saturday, if Gladbach’s trip to Bayern Munich is called off after Bayern confirmed nine coronavirus cases this week. Either way, the Bundesliga is back and so am I.
All stats per StatsBomb via FBRef
We’re halfway through the season and the massive managerial upheaval that tore through the Bundesliga at the end of 2020/21 now seems like it was all … sort of pointless?
Julian Nagelsmann took the step up to the top job in the league and it’s going pretty well. Bayern are well on their way to a tenth successive title, but nobody expected any different. Gerardo Seaone arrived in the league in the summer and has impressed with Bayer Leverkusen, improving them offensively even if they have become more vulnerable defensively. Otherwise it’s all been quite underwhelming for those who made a change and especially those who snatched a coach from a Bundesliga rival.
The season’s success stories have instead been the sides who have opted to stick, not twist. Freiburg are currently in third under Christian Streich, who reached the tenth anniversary of his appointment over the break. TSG Hoffenheim were disappointing under Sebastian Hoeneß last season but stuck with him and are now fifth. Urs Fischer is still defying all expectations with Union Berlin.
Clubs who have managed to find stability are enjoying the benefits. Continuity and the chance to build something long-term is the holy grail for clubs in Germany; there’s always a bigger, richer club sniffing around the coach or a star player when things go well. That even applies at Dortmund, who triggered much of the coaching merry-go-round in the summer.
BVB weren’t content with Lucien Favre last season and he lost his job inDecember. Marco Rose was named as his successor for 2021/22, taking over after Edin Terzić steadied the ship and won the DFB Pokal during his six months in charge. Another half a season later, with Rose in charge, and Dortmund are second, like they almost always are, fulfilling that familiar position of trailing Bayern Munich at the top and playing the role of the uncatchable giant to the other 16 teams in the German top flight. The more things change.
The real issue is that Rose’s appointment hasn’t really made Dortmund any better at either end of the pitch. Results have improved slightly but Rose has not been able to find a way to make up for the departure of Jadon Sancho in attack, nor has he created a system that can deliver reliable defensive performances, especially Mats Hummels seemingly in decline and the drop off in quality at the back proving huge as soon as there is an injury.
Borussia Mönchengladbach fans were unhappy Rose left for Dortmund but had also spent much of 2020/21 questioning his ability and blaming him for the team’s inability to progress.
They had finished fourth in his first season but eighth in his second, struggling behind closed doors as a small squad contended with European football and forwards Marcus Thuram and Alassane Pléa both struggling to continue their form of the previous campaign. The Foals went and got Adi Hütter, who had led Eintracht Frankfurt to a Europa League semi-final in 2019, the knockout rounds and a cup semi in 2020, and fifth place in 2021.
But Gladbach are now 14th in the league. The attack is working just fine but when things break down, Hütter’s side are conceding huge chances. Last season they conceded the worst quality shots in the league at 0.09 xG per shot but that is up to 0.12 xG/shot this season. Only Leipzig are conceding bigger chances. Only Greuther Fürth have conceded more through balls.
With defender Matthias Ginter and combative midfielder Denis Zakaria both announcing that they will leave for free at the end of the season, Hütter’s chances of finding a long-term solution have suffered a blow before the second half of the campaign has even kicked off.
Things aren’t much better at Frankfurt post-Hütter. Niko Kovać led the club to the cup in 2018 before he was picked up by Bayern and replaced by the Austrian but things fell apart last year, with Hütter and sporting director Fredi Bobic both leaving.
Oliver Glasner arrived as head coach after an excellent campaign with Wolfsburg built on a stingy defence. His Frankfurt have been anything but: only four teams have conceded more xG this season. They’ve won six of their last seven to rise to sixth after an awful start but even that fine run has been far from flawless at the back. A switch to the back three the players used last season, rather than the 4-2-3-1 that led to so much success at Wolfsburg, seems to have brought some improvements but Eintracht remain a long way off last season’s form.
The weird thing is that they aren’t surpressing shots like Glasner’s Wolfsburg did.
Nor are Wolfsburg anymore.
VfL have already fired the man who took over. Mark van Bommel delivered some the most dreary football in the league and did so without impressive results. Now Florian Kohfeldt is already in danger having replaced the Dutchman. Wolfsburg lost five in a row and slipped to 13th just in time for Christmas.
Wolfsburg are more entertaining under Kohfeldt, attacking more freely and with more directness, but they are a revolving door at the back. Van Bommel’s football wasn’t great but they at least kept the ball well enough and built attacks slowly enough to not concede chance after chance.
And then there’s RB Leipzig. This one is a bit unfair as Julian Nagelsmann was always going to prove impossible to replace, I explained as much last year, but nobody expected them to play this poorly.
Nagelsmann was replaced by Jesse Marsch, who has already been sacked and replaced by Domenico Tedesco, who failed at Schalke in his last Bundesliga endeavour. He looks more suited to the squad than Marsch, who wanted Leipzig to play true “Red Bull” football, focused on turnovers and aggressive pressing. The squad, though, had both been assembled for and become used to Nagelsmann’s more thoughtful possession-based approach.
Leipzig’s full-throttle approach under Marsch led to a small uptick offensively but a huge drop off defensively, with games no longer under control.
It’s hard to see how the club ever get close to the glory they are desperate for if they couldn’t manage it under the now Bayern Munich boss.
After all that change, nobody is better off. Every club is always looking for their own long-term project, quality and stability in tandem, but the paradox for every Bundesliga club other than Bayern is that attention quickly arrives from clubs who simply have more gravity.
For all the upheaval between last season and this, nobody has really managed to come out on top.