Why is Thilo Kehrer so important to Hansi Flick's Germany?
It's finally time to have a look at Germany's post-Jogi Löw era.
Let’s kick things off with some quick shop-keeping. We’ve got a whole summer to get into the million questions surrounding Borussia Dortmund and if you’re interested in stadiums being full again I wrote about that last time.
In the meantime, this has happened:
I’ll try to write about that this week as the story develops.
For now, I’ve taken a look at Germany under Hansi Flick now they’ve played a more serious opponent and I was semi-inspired by Grace Robertson predicting the England squad to take a look at who he’ll probably take to the World Cup in November.
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“I think you can recognise our gameplan,” Hansi Flick said in an interview in December. “We want to be very active in all positions at all times, we want to put the opponent under pressure early on, we want to stress them.
“Our backline is very high when we are in possession of the ball. Our center-backs are then 35, 40 meters away from their own goal. That’s worked well so far.”
But there was one issue. Many had tried to suggest Flick had turned things around. And sure, they were more impressive than under Jogi Löw by the end, but they also hadn’t played anyone. Flick said it himself:
“But in these seven games we’ve also had opponents that we, as the German national team, have to dominate and beat. In the future, we will have to face completely different challenges.”
So after those seven consecutive wins against Liechtenstein (twice), Armenia (twice), Iceland, Romania and North Macedonia, the March international break came around and we could finally, maybe, actually learn something about where Germany are at.
An expected eighth win in a row came against Israel before the first true test of the Hansi Flick era, a trip to the Netherlands, brought a pretty decent performance and ended in a 1-1 draw.
There’s not too much point discussing what Flick wants from his Germany side either. He explained that himself and we all watched his Bayern Munich side. It’s about high pressing, incredibly intense counter-pressing, and some flexibility in possession — more on that last bit shortly.
In terms of team selection, there have been some injury absentees at times, but not so many that we can’t take a pretty good stab at what the bulk of the squad and a favoured XI might be heading into next summer’s World Cup.
Flick has given minutes to 37 players so far, with 11 of those playing just once or twice and 15 players featuring in five or more of the nine games Flick has been in charge of. Let’s assume they all make it and we have:
Goalkeepers: Manuel Neuer
Defence: Thilo Kehrer, David Raum, Antonio Rüdiger, Niklas Süle
Midfield: Leon Goretzka, Ilkay Gündogan, Jonas Hofmann, Joshua Kimmich, Jamal Musiala
Forwards: Serge Gnabry, Kai Havertz, Thomas Müller, Leroy Sané, Timo Werner
And we’re left with space for two goalkeepers, then probably four more defenders and two more midfielders/forwards to complete the 23-man squad.
Here, for the record, are the players Flick has used most so far and how much he has used them. And yes, that is Paris Saint-Germain defender Thilo Kehrer at the very top.
I can already hear you asking why Kehrer finds himself there, so …
The full-back conundrum
Germany’s left-back options all play like wingers in a back five. You’ve got Robin Gosens (Inter) and David Raum (Hoffenheim) who both excel as attacking wing-backs, the same goes for Christian Günter (Freiburg) more often than. These are the only three natural left-backs Flick has used and nobody else is close to knocking on the door.
At right-back a similar issue exists with the incredibly attack-minded Ridle Baku (Wolfsburg) or bit-part RB Leipzig man Benjamin Henrichs the only natural options.
When you have gaps at international level, you’re stuck with them. So the puzzle has to be turned on its head and creative solutions need to be found. Kehrer has been just that.
Germany look like they’re playing a back four most of the time but it’s more like a back five, with one full-back bombing forward and Kehrer playing on the other side to compensate. As per StatsBomb (via FBRef), Kehrer plays just 66% of his passes with his right foot, per StatsBomb, with the closest PSG player to him for two-footedness being Marquinhos, who plays 81% of passes with his favoured right foot. Kehrer has also played at centre-back, right-back, and left-back for PSG this season. It all makes him the perfect player to balance an overly offensive fullback on the opposite side.
That has actually usually been nominal midfielder Jonas Hofmann on the right, with Germany lining up like this against Romania, their toughest Euros qualifying opponent, last year:
And, more recently, they looked like this with Kehrer at right-back against the Netherlands:
“I want to single Thilo Kehrer out,” Flick said at the end of the October international break. “He played three games in three different positions, he did a great job.”
He clearly wasn’t just saying it and it would, by now, be a surprise if Kehrer isn’t heavily involved in the winter.
There are two more big questions, so let’s get on to those.
What about Leroy Sané?
Leroy Sané was not Flick’s favourite player at Bayern Munich. He competed with Serge Gnabry and Kingsley Coman for the wide positions in 2020/21 and they both started more often than he did in the Bundesliga.
Flick looked to use Sané on the right, where he could cut inside, and didn’t see the sort of form that the German had produced playing on the left wing under Pep Guardiola at Manchester City.
It’s fair to say Sané has improved for Bayern this season playing closer to the left, though not hugging the touchline like in his City days, and Flick is looking to use him in the same position, pulling wider when Kehrer is at left-back and tucking inside when someone else is there. Germany are finally getting the most from him and he will be crucial in the winter.
Who plays up front?
Right now, Timo Werner. And you can’t really argue with that. Other than fullback this is Germany’s problem position but Werner, for all his viral misses, has six goals in his seven games under Flick.
Even more importantly, he has the pace and the movement to stretch defences and create spaces between the opposition defence and midfield, where Germany’s most talented attacking players are stationed. There isn’t much competition and Werner helps the likes of Sané, Thomas Müller and Kai Havertz play their games.
The last interesting thing is how Germany view this World Cup. Really, after two disappointing tournaments in a row, it has to be viewed preparation for them hosting Euro 2024. That’s the one this team will be most ready for, with Florian Wirtz (injured and likely to miss 2022) and Jamal Musiala (who already looks increasingly important) then ready to take over from Thomas Müller and complete the transition from the 2014 World Cup-winning team.
But that doesn’t mean Germany can’t go a long way in 2022 and neither Flick nor the huge amounts of talent at his disposal should be underestimated. The squad is a little unbalanced but which international side isn’t? Germany’s next game, against Italy, should tell us even more about how ready they are to compete again.
Good insight into German National team